Scale was A=93, C=63.
Questions are in black, solutions are in blue.
Q1: 30 points Q2: 20 points Q3: 30 points Q4: 20 points Total: 100 points
Of the 44 = 256 possible atomic events, 4! = 24 are Venus events.
(There are 44 = 24 no-repeat sequences of four elements from
the set {1. 3. 4. 6}.)
In the fair tali case, each of the atomic events are equally likely. So
the probability of a Venus, by the Probability Rule, is 24/256 = 3/32 =
0.09375.
In the unfair tali case, we need to compute the probability of each of the
24 atomic events in question and add them together. Fortunately all of these
probabilities are the same -- (0.2)(0.3)(0.2)(0.3) = 0.0036 -- because in each
case we multiply the same four probabilities in a different order. (We can
multiply because the throws of the different tali are independent events by
assumption.) So the overall probability is 24(0.0036) = 0.0864.
Because expected values add, we need only find the expected score from one
talus and multiply it by four. (Many of you found the expected value for only
one talus, and if so I detected two points for your failure to read the question
carefully.) The expected value is the sum, over all atomic events, of the
value of the event times the probability of the event.
For a fair talus, the four events are equally likely, so the expected
value is (1 + 3 + 4 + 6)/4 = 3.5, and the expected value of the sum of four
tali is 4(3.5) = 14.
For an unfair talus, the expected value is (0.2)1 + (0.3)3 + (0.2)4 +
(0.3)6 = 3.7, so the expected value of the sum of four tali is 14.8.
There are three ways for a throw to not be a senio, and these three events are pairwise disjoint. We could have no sixes (34 = 81 atomic events), four sixes (1 event), or a Venus (24 events as computed in (a)). This gives 106 non-senio events and thus 256 - 106 = 150 senio events. In the fair tali case all atomic events are equally likely, and so the probability of a senio is 150/256 = 75/128 = 0.5859375.
There are 43 = 64 sequences of length 3 from a 4-element set.
There are 43 = 24 no-repeat sequences from a four-element set.
We could have any set of one, two, or three bases. The number of these is (4 choose 1) + (4 choose 2) + (4 choose 3) = 4 + 6 + 4 = 14. We could also say that we could have any of the 24 = 16 sets except for the set of all four bases or the empty set, for 16 - 2 = 14 total sets.
There are (4 - 1 + 3 choose 3) = (6 choose 3) = 20 multisets of size three from a four-element set. We apply the formula (n - 1 + k choose k) with n = 4 and k = 3.
a
(1) ------------->(2)
^<--------------/ |
| b |
| |
| e | c
\ /
\ /
\---(3)<----/
^ \
\/
We prove that for any string w in X, there is a path labeled by w from vertex
1 to itself.
For the base case, we take w = λ and note that there is a path of
length 0, labeled by λ, from vertex 1 to itself. (Many of you said
correctly that λ was the base base but then failed to give any argument
that λ meets the given condition to be in L.)
For the inductive case, we let w be an arbitrary string and assume that w is
in L, so that there
is a path labeled by w from vertex 1 to itself. We then have to prove that
both the strings wab and wace are in L, which is to say that there are paths
from 1 to itself labeled by each of these two strings. For wab, there is a
path that follows w from 1 to itself, then takes edge a to 2, then takes edge
b to 1. So this path goes from 1 to itself and is labeled by wab. Similarly
there is a path that starts at 1, takes w to 1, takes a to 2, takes c to 3, and
then takes e to 1. This path is labeled by wace and goes from 1 to itself.
We have completed the inductive case and thus completed the proof that all
strings in (ab + ace)* are in L.
There is one string of length 0 in (a + b + c + d + e)*, and it is
in L because there is a path of length 0 labeled by λ at each vertex.
For k = 1, 2, 3, and 4 there is one string for each path, and we can compute
the number of paths by letting A be the adjacency matrix of G, calculating
Ak using matrix multiplication over the naturals, and adding the
nine entries of each matrix:
Thus the number of strings for k = 1 is 5, for k = 2 is 8, for k = 3
is 13, and for k = 4 is 21. You may have noticed that these are all Fibonacci
numbers, and in fact it is not hard to prove by induction that Ak
is:
This makes the sum of the entries (for positive k) 4F(k) + F(k+1) + 4F(k+2)
= 3F(k) + 5F(k+2) = F(k+5). (Of course simply giving the numbers through
k = 4 is a full-credit answer for this problem, but you should notice cases
where interesting induction proofs come up.)
A = 0 1 0 A^2 = 1 0 1 A^3 = 1 1 1 A^4 = 2 1 2
1 0 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 3 2 3
1 0 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 3 2 3
F(k) F(k+1) F(k)
F(k+2) F(k) F(k+2)
F(k+2) F(k) F(k+2)
We can give Angelina either of the two 2's, and then distribute the other ten cards to the other ten students in any of 10! ways. This gives 2(10!) assignments where Angelina is in the two-person group, and the probability is 2(10!)/11! = 2/11. You could also compute the probability more directly, since the probability that Angelina gets each of the eleven cards is equal, so there is a 2/11 probability that she will get one of the two 2's.
There are 2! = 2 ways to assign the two 2's to Angelina and Brad, and 9! ways to assign the other nine cards to the other nine students. This gives 2(9!) assignments with Angelina and Brad as the two-person group, for a probability of 2(9!)/11! = 2/(10*11) = 1/55. Another way to get the probability is to see that each of the (11 choose 2) = 55 pairs of students is equally likely to be the two-person group, making the probability 1/55 that one particular pair is chosen. (You could then compute the number of assignments from the probability.)
The event that Angelina and Brad are together is the union of four disjoint events: they both get 2's, they both get jacks, they both get queens, or they both get kings. We get the total probability by adding the probabilities of these four individual events. In part (b) we computed the probability of their both getting 2's as 1/55. For them to both get jacks, we can think of Angelina first getting one of the three jacks (probability 3/11) and then Brad getting one of the two remaining jacks (2/10). This gives (3/11)(2/10) = 3/55 for the probability of their both getting jacks. The probabilities of both queens or both kings are each also 3/55 by exactly the same argument. So the total is 1/55 + 3/55 + 3/55 + 3/55 = 10/55 = 2/11. (As far as I can see, it is just coincidence that this equals the answer to (a).)
Last modified 2 May 2006