Welcome to the Spring 2014 homepage for CMPSCI 240: Reasoning About Uncertainty.

• Instructor:
• Andrew McGregor. Email: mcgregor at cs.
• Office hours: 1:30-2:30 Wednesday or by appointment. My office is 334 in the computer science department.

• TA:
• Vineet Kumar. Email: vineet at cs. CT Siddharth. Email: siddct@cs.umass.edu
• Office hours: 11-12 Monday (Sid, LGRT 220), 2-3 Thursday (Vineet, LGRT 220) and by appointment.

• Textbook: The textbooks will be
• Participation (10%): Discussion section activities and in-class quizzes.
• Homework (20%): Weekly multiple-choice quiz (in Moodle) and six sets of written homework problems.
• Midterm 1 (15%): Focuses on lectures 1-7.
• Midterm 2 (15%): Focuses on lectures 8-14.
• Midterm 3 (15%): Focuses on lectures 15-20.
• Final (25%): Covers all lectures.
• Homeworks, Exams, Material:
• Schedule and Slides: Here's an approximate schedule for the course. Note that this'll be updated as we go along depending on our progress and, hopefully, we'll get to squeeze in a couple of extra topcs. I'll add slides after each class (some links will be dead until the slides are added).

Lec 1 21 Jan Preliminaries, Sets, Probability 1-9 [BT]
Lec 2 23 Jan Basic properties of probability 10-22 [BT]
Lec 3 28 Jan Conditional probability 22-28 [BT]
Disc 1 29 Jan Discussion Simpson's Paradox
Lec 4 30 Jan Sequential experiments 28-34 [BT]
Lec 5 4 Feb The total probability theorem and Bayes rule 34-41 [BT]
- 5 Feb [Snow Day]
Lec 6 6 Feb Independent trials and Basic Counting 42-51 [BT]
Lec 7 11 Feb More Advanced Counting 42-51 [BT]
Disc 2 12 Feb Discussion: Monty Hall Monty Hall Problem
- 13 Feb [Snow Day]
- 18 Feb [Monday Schedule]
Disc 3 19 Feb Discussion: Exam Review First Revision Handout
Lec 8 20 Feb Random variables and binomial distribution pp.72-81 [BT]
Lec 9 25 Feb Geometric and Poisson Randon Variables pp. 72-81 [BT]
Disc 4 26 Feb Discussion:
Lec 10 27 Feb Functions of Random Variables pp. 81-92 [BT]
Lec 11 4 Mar Variance and Tail Bounds pp. 264-270 [BT]
Disc 5 5 Mar Discussion:
Lec 12 6 Mar Chebyshev Bound pp. 264-270 [BT], Chebyshev Video
Lec 13 11 Mar Multiple Random Variables pp. 92-115 [BT]
Disc 6 12 Mar Discussion: Exam Review Second Revision Handout
Lec 14 13 Mar Covariance, Correlation and Causation pp. 217-221 [BT]
Lec 15 25 Mar Coupon Collecting Coupon Collecting
Disc 7 26 Mar Discussion:
Lec 16 27 Mar Balls and Bins Birthday Problem
Lec 17 1 Apr Spam Filtering and Naive Bayes Classification
Disc 8 2 Apr Discussion:
Lec 18 3 Apr Bayesian Networks
Lec 19 8 Apr Bayesian Networks
Disc 9 9 Apr Discussion:
Lec 20 10 Apr Markov Chains pp. 340-362 [BT]
Lec 21 15 Apr Markov Chains pp. 340-362 [BT]
Disc 10 16 Apr Discussion: Exam Review Third Revision Handout
Lec 22 17 Apr Game Theory
Lec 23 22 Apr More Game Theory
- 23 Apr [Monday Schedule]
Lec 24 24 Apr Information Theory
Lec 25 29 Apr Information Theory
Disc 12 30 Apr Discussion: Exam Review Fourth Revision Handout